Here’s Where It Gets Interesting

So, USC lost. Florida won. This leaves the championship picture about as murky as could be imagined heading into this weekend. Had USC won, they’d have been a lock, of course, and only the most die-hard of Michigan fans could have argued (I mean, I wouldn’t have. OSU would have crushed them, though, I’m just saying.) that this shouldn’t be the case. But Florida rests on swampier ground, so to speak. Their loss came against Auburn in the middle of the season. Now, Auburn itself was at one point touted as a championship contender (As were Arkansas and LSU. I’m just saying that if you get an SEC with a fair loss then they somehow automatically enter into the discussion.) but, like Florida they didn’t really play much of anyone. Not outside of the SEC, anyway (Florida did play FSU, true, but they play FSU had a horrible year)..

And while it can be argued that the SEC is an extremely difficult conference to go through undefeated – after all, no one did this year – by my count they have several teams that managed to get to the finish line with one or two losses. So, I’d stack the SEC against the Big 10 and consider them about roughly equal. I mean, if it wasn’t for Ohio State and UofM then Wisconsin would be getting due consideration alongside of Florida. But they’re not even going to a BCS bowl because each conference can only send two teams. That’s three legitimate national championship caliber teams to throw into the ring. And the next run down the ladder – Iowa, Perdue, and Penn State – are no less of opponents than the also-rans of the south. So, I’d say the strength of conference metric is too close to make much of a difference – they’re both good and they’re both tough to play in, anything more than that is extremely subjective. Likewise for out-of-conference competition. Michigan played Notre Dame but the Irish’s value is extremely overinflated by their reputation. Their record against actual opposition is extremely poor – twenty point losses to USC and UofM will do that for you. Michigan handled all of those but then, too, did Florida.

Consider the loss each team suffered. Florida lost against middle of the pack SEC team Auburn – at Auburn - just as the conference season was getting underway and then ran the table the rest of the way. Michigan went undefeated and largely unchallenged until the final game of the season against their arch rival and the only undefeated team in the nation OSU. Down by 14 points they rallied to only lose by a field goal. And the game was played in the Horseshoe. I’d think Michigan’s loss is the better one, if there is such a thing. Now, personally, I’d also think that it doesn’t matter when in the season you lose just how and to whom. The current system rewards teams for losing early in the season and recovering. And punishes them for losing late. So, I’m probably wrong about that as I am about a lot of things.

Very well then, let’s set aside the issue of which loss is somehow more acceptable. Each team has one against fair opposition at the very least. Each team played well against every other team they faced. And each team comes from a conference loaded with tough opposition. Balancing that equation everything comes out equal. So, for me – and admittedly, I’m exceptionally biased here – it comes down to which team is going to provide the best game for OSU in the title game. Florida hasn’t played anyone flying at that level yet. Michigan has. And in enemy territory they very nearly won. We know what a UofM-OSU game looks like already (And there are those who’d say that having seen it once we shouldn’t again. I don’t quite see the logic there. If it had been Texas left with one loss to OSU I don’t think there’d be as much opposition even though OSU already beat them. That loss would have come early, of course, but my point is that this game is about matching the two best teams in the nation – whoever they are – and I don’t care if they’ve played ten times already. The championship is on a different level and won’t be the same game a second time around. I mean, if the Celtics played the Lakers during the regular season would you mind seeing them decide the finals? Personally, I think that the two teams have met already just makes the game that much more intense. Especially when the stakes are higher. Still, it’s a valid point of view and there’ll be no doubt those in the “anybody but Michigan” camp for that reason alone.) and, personally, I thought it looked pretty damn good. You’re going to tell me that on a neutral field with a hundred year old rivals meeting to decide the championship directly for the first time that’s not going to be a game for the ages before it even begins? Please, the hype and excitement (and ratings) would blow the first meeting so far out of the water it would be ridiculous. These teams know each other now. They’ve seen the tricks, they’ve seen the schemes, they’ve seen the plays, and they’ll have a month or so to work on beating them. A rematch is going to test each team to prove they’re really better. And I for one, would pay a dollar to see it.

Oh well, I'll find out tomorrow with the rest of us. But, man, "UofM/OSU #2 - this time it's for all the marbles" sounds a lot better than "Florida/Ohio State". Here's hoping that something I'm not wrong about.