Celestial Tournament: Placing My Bets

They've updated the official tournament page with a bracket. As I figured, it's a standard elimination bracket so there'll be no reseeding. I've been doing some figuring so it's time to place my bets and take my chances. The matches are going to start tomorrow at 16GMT which is 12EST and 9AM PST, I believe. The second round starts three hours later at 19GMT and that quick turnaround makes things a bit dicey. If a team gets on a good run, then they might bust through to the final four on Sunday. And all these teams are really close in terms of their records, especially once you get past the first four or six seeds. Accurately predicting the outcome is going to be tough here.

That said, let's look at those teams a bit before I make my predictions.

• #1 Esoteric Warriors [EW] (Region: Europe). 8-0, 24 Points (OP - Match Win: 71%, OP - Battle Win: 66%, Guild Battle Win: 89%)

The number one overall seed and the only undefeated team in the tournament. They currently sit at 2nd on the guild ladder with a sparkling 217 wins to 39 losses. Those 256 games, heh, have given them 1319 rating points so they set a blistering pace of 1.24PPG. Only teams like [QQ] and [Honk] have a better PPG and they haven't played nearly as many games. In the Swiss Rounds, EW earned many a quality win over other elimination round teams, such as Time Is Running (2-0, 2nd round), [one] (2-0, 4th round), [iPod] (2-0, 5th round), [Vibe] (2-0, 7th round), and, of course, a 2-1 decision with Mostly Harmless in the final round to claim the top seed. Although they didn't make the elimination rounds, [EW] also beat [QQ] 2-1 in what was probably the best match of the tournament so far. That's a win path that no one else can match.

It all adds up to a fierce opponent. [EW] is going to be a tough out but my money's on the next team to take the crown.

• #2 Idiot Savants [iQ] (Region: America) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 81%, OP - Battle Win: 72%, Guild Battle Win: 73%)

One of three teams not in the top 100 on the ladder. In [iQ]'s case that's not a problem because the hyper-intelligent high-speed data cluster known as Ensign controls roughly 95% of all active PvP players through microchips embeded in their foreskin. This was revealed through carefully coded messages about the dye colors during the last Frog Chat. Careful reconstruction of these decoded message - now lost thanks to a suspicious virus which wiped any known records from harddrives reads as follows: "Don't be fooled. The Ghosts are in the Machine. Ensign is in your baseroot pwning up your nads." Keep the truth alive and pass this message on before they get to me as well.

All joking aside, [iQ]'s been inactive since March 3rd, carefully keeping their ranking just below the magic 100 point. With all their various smurf guilds, they've no doubt kept themselves in fighting trim but that makes them hard to scout. It's moves like that which make iQ the prohibitive favorite here. They've been in this kind of situation before, they've had success, and they're going to eke out every last advantage they can. They had the toughest strength of schedule of any teams in the Swiss rounds. Their only loss came in the 6th round against Team Everfrost. And they've got wins over [LaG], [wR], and [iPod].

They should go deep in the tournament. I wouldn't be surprised to see an [EW]/[iQ] final round.

• #3. Mostly Harmless [MH] (Region: America) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 68%, OP - Battle Win: 63%, Guild-Battle Win: 73%)

I know a few people on [MH] and they're pretty froody dudes so it's a sentimental favorite. Fortunately, they're pretty damn good. They narrowly missed the top seed thanks to a final round loss to [EW]. And during the Swiss rounds they had some strong wins over good teams. However, their match against [EW] was the first time they played another team that made the elimination rounds so, although it was a close 2-1 loss, that's something of a warning sign to me.

I can see them making it to play on Sunday but, after that, the competition gets much fiercer. Their bracket makes for some nasty potential match-ups that they'll have to get through, though..

• #4 Winners Remorse [wR] (Region: America) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 68%, OP - Battle Win: 65%, Guild-Battle Win: 79%)

Haven't been able to find out much about [wR] and they're one of those teams that have cropped up in my absence. What I do know is they're at 50th on the ladder and would probably be higher if they played more games - they have a 1.3PPG but only 136 matches so they sit just below the magic 1200 rating mark. Their path to the elimination rounds isn't all that impressive. They have a 2-1 win over [acid] but they also lost 2-1 to [iQ].

I don't have a good read on this team but I also don't have a good feeling about them.

• #5 Ominous Latin Name [tag] (Region: America) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 67%, OP - Battle Win: 60%, Guild-Battle Win: 75%)

[tag] definitely has the credentials. They've been around, they're established, and they've got a spot hovering around the top 20 on the ladder. During the Swiss rounds they beat both [QQ] and [LaG]. While their only loss came in the fifth round to the giant killer, Team Everfrost.

Speaking of which:

• #6 Team Everfrost [eF] (Region: Europe) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 62%, OP - Battle Win: 57%, Guild-Battle Win: 88%)

Today, [eF] is the number 3 team on the ladder. But they're only 5 rating points back from [EW] and the two have been battling back and forth for a while. Their PPG isn't quite as impressive but the fact that they've played over 400 games, winning 335 of them, is.

And, in the tournament, outside of [EW], Everfrost has beaten the biggest names. They took down both [tag] and [iQ] handing them their only losses and dispatching their first round opponents [SiN] as well. Also, [RenO] who didn't finish so well but I believe they dropped out of the tournament. Their only loss came to the always game [acid], a team they won't have to deal with again until the finals, if then. On the other hand, they're in the tougher lower bracket with [iQ], [RUS], and [MH]. Plus, you know, they've got conzpi if he isn't banned.

I like them as a serious dark horse here but they'll likely have to really earn their way to the finals.

• #7 Rus Corp [RUS] (Region: Europe) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 62%, OP - Battle Win: 55%, Guild-Battle Win: 80%)

Another team that's been around for a while. And experience counts for a lot in this kind of format. [RUS] has been in tournaments before and knows how to get it done. However, their ladder record isn't very impressive. They sit just outside the top 100 with 1129 rating in nearly 400 games.

And their road to the elimination rounds wasn't all that impressive either. They lost against #11 [SiN] but that was it for matches against teams that finished in the top 50 until an 8th round match against #25 Newbs on Tour.

Granted, they can only play the matches they were given but I'm smelling a team that's overranked here. And ripe for an upset.

• #8 Battery Powered Best Friend [Vibe] (Region: America) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 60%, OP - Battle Win: 58%, Guild-Battle Win: 88%)

Still one of the best names around. Sparkling ladder record of 141-38. And some good wins in the Swiss rounds including one against #16 Supernova Jpn. But an 8th seed means they have a tough fight against the Bambis in the first round and a potential rematch against [EW] (who handed them their only loss in the 7th round) waiting for them if they make it past that. So, I don't see them getting too far which is too bad, really.

• #9 Bambis Dont Say [Meow] (Region: Europe) 7-1, 21 Points (OP - Match Win: 57%, OP - Battle Win: 55%, Guild-Battle Win: 79%)

They're pitted against #8 seed [Vibe] to begin with. Like that team, they've got a great ladder record and some quality wins in the Swiss rounds. Their loss came in the first round against [PnH] who dropped from the tournament. So, it's something of a toss-up.

• #10 Time Is Running [OUT] (Region: Amer ica) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 71%, OP - Battle Win: 66%, Guild-Battle Win: 62%)

Now we're into the two loss teams. They're really not separated by much. [OUT] beat [acid] in the first round and along the way some 18 point teams that barely missed the final cut. They lost to [EW] but they also lost to [Nap], the #25 ranked team. But a first round match against [RUS], one of the weakest 2 loss teams, bodes well.

• #11 Serious Sin [SiN] (Region: Europe) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 70%, OP - Battle Win: 68%, Guild-Battle Win: 65%)

Another team I haven't really heard of beforehand. In the bottom of the top 100 on the ladder. But their road to the elimination rounds wasn't all that impressive. A win over [RUS] - which isn't really saying much. And losses to Chimera of Intensity (who finished #17 overall) and [eF], their first round opponent, don't impress. So, I'd say they're heading for an early exit.

• #12 Temporal Flux Reality [acid] (Region: America) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 69%, OP - Battle Win: 61%, Guild-Battle Win: 61%)

They lost to [OUT] and [wR]. And most of their opponents weren't very notable. But they do have the only win against [eF] so I'm not counting them out.

• #13 Listen To [iPod] (Region: Europe) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 67%, OP - Battle Win: 64%, Guild-Battle Win: 70%)

Another team that doesn't ring many bells. I've seen them pop up on obs mode from time to time but I can't say they've made much of an impression. They're pretty high on the ladder at 6th at the moment. And their only losses came against [EW] and [iQ]. They don't, however, have many impressive wins, as far as I can tell, except for one against [Honk]. And their two losses means a first round match against the scary looking [wR].

• #14 (Korean characters) [one] (Region: Asia) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 67%, OP - Battle Win: 60%, Guild-Battle Win: 58%)

One of two Asia region teams in the elimination rounds. They've been around for a while, as I remember them from some of the earliest tournaments - they didn't do very well but they were still there all the same. And they're from Korea making them a bit of a wildcard as they come from a different metagame and all. However, they're the lowest ranked team to make it to the elimination rounds - they sit at 227th with only 1091 - well out of the top 100. They did beat [WM] in the first round but that War Machine was a shell of its former self and left the game pretty shortly thereafter. Their losses came against [EW], which isn't a surprise, and #65 Black Emperor, which is.

Something tells me they're not long for this tournament.

• #15 Zero Files Remaining [LaG] (Region: America) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 67%, OP - Battle Win: 59%, Guild-Battle Win: 62%)

Another middle of the top 100 American ladder team. But, as we all know, the ladder means nothing. Their losses in the Swiss came against [iQ] and [tag] and while they didn't take out anyone in the elimination rounds, they beat several teams that finished in the top 50, especially once they climbed out of the initial hole of a first round loss.

I'd actually like their chances a lot more if their first round pairing wasn't a rematch of that loss - against iQ. As it is, they're probably not going to stick around long.

• #16 Supernova Jpn [SpNv] (Region: Asia) 6-2, 18 Points (OP - Match Win: 66%, OP - Battle Win: 63%, Guild-Battle Win: 68%)

Japan's top team although they've slipped a bit on the ladder lately. Losses came against [Vibe] and the #19 X Attention Disorder X. And I'm hard pressed to find a truly impressive win. In the end, it doesn't really matter as they're up against heavyweight [EW] in the first round.


Here's how I expect the rounds to play out:

First Round:

• #1 [EW] over #16 [SpNv]
• #2 [iQ] over #15 [LaG]
• #3 [MH] over #14 [one]
• #4 [wR] over #13 [iPod]
• #12 [acid] over #5 [tag]
• #6 [eF] over #11 [SiN]
• #10 [OUT] over #7 [RUS]
• #9 [Meow] over #8 [Vibe]

So, I expect the top seeds to win out but in the I'm guessing the bottom part of the brackets get a little wacky. I think I'm going out on the biggest limb by calling Temporal Flux over Latin Name but I just have a feeling about that one. Rus Corp losing to Time is Running, though, I think is a pretty sure call. And the 8/9 match-up between [Vibe] and [Meow] could go either way but I think [Meow] has had the tougher fight to get to this point and that'll show.

Lots of interesting matches set up in the second round, if things tumble my way. On to my picks, though.

Round Two:

• #1 [EW] over #9 [Meow]
• #12 [acid] over #4 [wR]
• #2 [iQ] over #10 [OUT]
• #6 [eF] over #3 [MH]

In case it's not obvious, [acid] is my choice to play spoiler. I can't really say why except I like what I've seen from them and think they'll be a lot to handle in the best of three tournament setting. And as much as I like Mostly Harmless, I think Team Everfrost is really playing well of late.

So, after day one's matches, we're on to the final four on Sunday with my round three picks.

Round Three:

• #1 [EW] over #12 [acid]
• #6 [eF] over #2 [iQ]

That's right, I'm going to call a repeat in the rematch between [iQ] and [eF]. The Idiots might have a nasty trick in their bag of surprises but their biggest weakness is that, collectively, they're not as skilled as many other top teams. They succeed because they're smart, experienced, and they very seldom make a mistake but they can be outplayed. And if anyone can take them down it's Team Everfrost. The Esoteric Warriors get a cakewalk into the championships, setting up an all European final.

Fourth Round:

• #1 [EW] over #6 [eF] (2-1)

I'm figuring this will be an epic bout between two fierce rivals but, in the end, I think [EW] is the better team and will take the crown.

So, if I've got things worked out, here's how I'm betting at the Xunlai House:

1. Esoteric Warriors
2. Team Everfrost
3. Idiot Savants
4. Temporal Flux Reality
5. Mostly Harmless
6. Winners Remorse
7. Bambis Don't Say
8. Time is Running