Playoff Series Update

With the NBA Conference Finals set to begin, it's time to check back in. My predictions, again, aren't looking so hot although, in a general sense, I did manage to get the overall picture of the NBA playoffs rather correct. I figured we'd be in for a Detroit/Cleveland series but in the West I was predicting a Phoenix/Houston final which didn't exactly happen. What we get is a rather less appealing Spurs/Jazz series. But the reason I presaged the Suns/Rockets was guessing that one of the middle of the pack in the West would break through with a solid playoff run – which has happened, just with Utah not Houston – and the winner of the looming Suns/Spurs series would be the team to beat. I just happened to pick the Suns because of my undying and inexplicable hate of the Spurs. Oh, sure, I could say I dislike them because they're incredibly dirty but as an old school Bad Boys fan, that's not exactly going to hold much water. I just can't stand them.

Anyhow, the expected outcome of those series isn't really in much doubt. We're headed for a Spurs/Pistons final which, while it's not exactly going to be a ratings blockbuster is going to feature a lot of hard fought, intense basketball between two experienced and tested teams. You have to give the Spurs the edge in such a matchup - if only for the Duncan factor – but I think it's going to depend a great deal on just how each team gets to the finals. If the Pistons can close out the Cavs quickly and rest up while the Spurs suffer through another close and physical series, well, the odds shift away from them.

Of the two series, I think the San Antonio/Utah one is going to feature the best games. It's not exactly a sexy marquee matchup that the NBA execs are loving but, that's because they prefer to market the sizzle and not the steak. It's going to feature some good basketball. Utah is, I suspect, better than people are giving them credit for. And they should be able to play with the Spurs and keep things close. The Spurs should win, but I think the Jazz will steal a game or two so I say San Antonio in six.

The Pistons/Cavs series is going to depend in large part on just how focused the Pistons are. As we saw last round, when they put the pedal down, they're tough to beat. And Cleveland is a much weaker team than Chicago so this series could very well end in a sweep. However, the Pistons have a distressing tendency to let off the gas when they're up in a series. If they take a night off then LeBron can put the Cavs on his back and lead them to a victory or two. Personally, I don't think the Pistons have learned their lesson, despite saying all the right things about it, so, again, I say this series goes six with my Pistons, of course, pulling it off.

Over in the NHL, one half of the final is set with the Senators advancing past the Sabres. As a Red Wing fan I know how hard it is to see a President's trophy winning team go down in flames the way the Yellow Slugs did but Ottawa was the much better team. I actually like Ottawa a lot (Maybe it's just because I like to stick it to the Maple Leafs, though.), they've been on the cusp of winning it all several times even though this is their first trip to the finals. They remind me a lot of early Detroit teams – knocking on the door only to have it slammed shut on them. And they've been playing great in front of solid goaltending with a wicked offense – Alfredson's been great, for one.

Meanwhile, my Wings and the suck-a-Ducks are still playing. They're tied two games a piece so it's Detroit and Ducks in a best of three now. I like the Wings chances, though. They've been carrying the play the last few games. I'm still trying to figure out how they lost the last game but, you know, that's hockey. You can do everything right and still not win. Pucks take strange bounces. Crazy stuff happens. You can be circling in the opponents zone for minutes on end, sending shot after quality shot at the net only to have the goalie swat them aside like King Kong batting away a bi-plane, only to have them grab a rebound, get a rush, and get some bloopy little shot past your minder. But over the course of a lengthy series it evens out. And like Calgary, Annaheim's been killing themselves with penalties – not just the suspension worthy stuff, either – while Detroit's power play has been fearsome. Game 5 is this afternoon and, as likely is going to be beaten into my head while watching, the team that wins that goes on to take the series most of the time.