Hope

I've been delving into the Presidential primaries a bit lately. Mostly because it's becoming an issue I should care about. But, let me tell you, it's very depressing to try and look at the sausage factory. Partly because I'm not exactly thrilled by the Democratic side of things but mostly because there's a possibility that one of the extremely scary options from the Republican side could actually win the election. I mean, they're playing to the base now and will likely swing towards more moderation but the prospect of a McCain or Romney or Guilian administration is one that sends me reaching for the liquor bottle.

And it's easy to get lost in the minutia of position papers and speech transcripts and partisan bloggeration that swirl around each candidate. To become confused by the flurry of pollsters and opinion makers and expert analysis, all arguing for this outcome or that common sense. And to lose perspective and believe that, somehow, this election can be stolen away by the same forces that have been governing us into ruination these past six years.

But, then, I find something this, which, on the basis of the latest polls of the latest polls, sorts the electoral college in two hypothetical match-ups. The first between Hill-dog and Stark Ravin' Rudy, the second Clinton the Fairer versus Romney the Flopper. Hilary is largely seen and generally polls as the weakest Democratic contender in the general election while Rudy is currently the Repubs front-runner while Romney is a close second. So, these match-ups would be the worst outcome for the top of the ballot as far as the progresso-liberal coalition is concerned.

The results? Beautiful.

Clinton trumps Guiliani 335-203 by picking up Florida and a few key southern states. But look at the results from a fight with Romney, the Republican candidate who gives me the most pause at the moment:

That's more than a 300 electoral vote victory for Clinton. She picks up Texas. Texas. I mean, that's a whipping of Dukakis or Mondale proportions.

If, of course, it played out that way. Which it almost certainly won't. Polls right now are worth the paper they're printed on, of course. There's a long way to go until the elections and most people aren't even paying attention at this point. I mean, a bit before my time but I hear that if you'd asked around before the election in 1980, things looked similarly bleak for Reagan and, well, look what happened:

So, the battle's not nearly over. But a study like this is a welcome reminder that the tide is overwhelmingly on the side I'm backing.