Stanley Cup Predictions

Ah, it's playoff hockey time. Given how successful I've been with such things in the past, you'd think I'd have learned my lesson but, no, it's prediction time.

The vagaries of fate have conspired to keep me from a word processor before now so you'll just have to take my word for it that I did, in fact, make these predictions before tonight's drubbing of Pittsburg by Ottawa began. On a ratty scrap of paper. Honest.

In any event, I love the NHL playoffs because they're so hard to predict. Unlike, say, the NBA playoffs where it's rare for a low seed to beat a high one, in the NHL, you expect at least on 6,7, or 8 seed to advance every year. It's just a given because even in a seven game series a goalie can get hot or a forward can play above their level and just carry their team to those four wins. So, every year you pretty much throw the records out the window. More so than ever this year when only a few points separate the top teams from the last teams into the playoffs. It's all about that matchups and the intangibles.

Anyhow, predicting the NHL playoffs is something I've done for a long, long time. It's a tradition I've inherited from my father who, along with his father, used to try and guess the outcome of the playoffs back when there were only two rounds and six teams in the whole league. I can't say I've ever had much success but, you know, it's all about having some fun with it all. Onto my predictions.

EASTERN

• #1 BUFFALO vs #8 NEW YORK ISLANDERS
• Sabers over Islanders in 5.

The Isles were a big surprise this year. And the subplot of Ted Nolan versus his old team is an intriguing one. But Buffalo was amazing wire to wire. No team had more depth or balance this year. The Islanders are going to give them everything they've got but I don't see the Sabers having much trouble here.

• #2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 TAMPA BAY
• Lightning over Devils in 6.

I'm calling for the upset here because New Jersey's had several key injuries and they're not at 100% entering the playoffs. And although you can never count out a team with Broduer, they Devils are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, that's not going to cut it in the post season. Not against an offense as potent as the Lightning anyway - they nearly won their division before pissing it away in the last week. This promises t be a tough fought series. And, well, I still hate the Devils.

• #3 ATLANTA vs #6 NEW YORK RANGERS
• Rangers over Thrashers in 6.

This one's a battle of playoff experience. This is Atlanta's first playoff series and their only previous experience comes from players they've only added this year. While the Rangers haven't been in the postseason for a while but they've still got some steady veterans of their own - including one of my favorite players, Brendan Shanahan. The Rangers have been on a roll since adding Sean Avery and while the Thrashers are loaded I think if the Rangers can steal an early game or two, they can take this series. Could go either way, but I'll back Shanny.

• #4 OTTAWA vs #5 PITTSBURG
• Senators over Penguins in 7.

The Senators have had a long history of playoff disappointments. But once again they've loaded down with talent and experience. While the Penguins are sure to be a sexy pick what with their resurgent play and the emergence of Sidney Crosby fueling a run to the playoffs. And it would be nice to see them do something, if only for their long suffering fans. But I think Ottawa's going to be just a little too much for them to handle.

WESTERN

• #1 DETROIT vs #8 CALGARY
• Red Wings over Flames in 7.

I'm such a homer that I've just completed a story about a wooden horse, so it's pretty much a given I'm going to go with the Wings here. That said, this series has me nervous. The Flames are the kind of scrappy team that's given the Wings trouble in the past - epitomized by the fact that they've got former grinder Darren McCarty on their roster even though he's not likely to see much play. And the Wings enter this series with a rash of injuries to key players. And all the pressure is on them to get past the first round for once. This one could induce multiple corronaries throughout Michigan but I still have to go with the Wings.

• #2 ANNAHEIM vs #7 MINNESOTA
• Mighty Ducks over Wild in 5.

Annaheim is probably the second or third best team in the league. Their blue line corps are especially scary. They very nearly overtook the Wings for the President's Trophy - not that that means much in the post season - and few teams ended the season stronger or had better records at home. They're a definite contender for the Cup. On the other hand, the Wild have excelled this year with a lot of plucky play and a goaltending carosel. This one has the potential for a sweep, if you ask me.

• #3 VANCOUVER vs #6 DALLAS
• Stars over Cannucks in 7.

It's a contest between two low-scoring teams. I'm going with Dallas to pull off the upset on the basis of two factors. First, when you slow the game down and keep things low scoring strange things can happen and that's a good recipe for a shocker. Second, this is one of those "well, all the top seeds can't make it through, can they?" picks because, again, it would be odd not to have at least one lower seed advance.

• #4 NASHVILLE vs #5 SAN JOSE
• Predators over Sharks in 7.

Simply put, the Preds have to win this one. The franchise is in trouble and it'll take a miracle run throught the playoffs to respark the fading interest in a decidedly non-hockey market. I'm a sucker for a good storyline like that, so I'm hoping they'll make that run. They are well equiped to do so with Kariya and Forsberg, who can both carry a team on their backs, and Vokun to backstop them to victory. San Jose is similarly loaded and this has the makings of a great series.

That'll set up some intersting matchups for the second round, of course, here's how I see them going:

EASTERN

• #1 BUFFALO over #7 TAMPA BAY in 5.
• #6 NEW YORK RANGERS over #4 OTTAWA in 6.

WESTERN

• #1 DETROIT over #6 DALLAS in 5.
• #4 NASHVILLE over #2 ANNAHEIM in 7.

So, the #1s advance while so, too, do some fan favorite underdogs. Detroit has a match with hated rivals Dallas, if things go according to plan, which should make for some fun viewing.

On to round three:

CONFERENCE FINALS

• #1 BUFFALO over #6 NEW YORK RANGERS in 6.
• #1 DETROIT over #4 NASHVILLE in 7.

I've got both #1s in the Stanley Cup Finals, which should be a warning sign because it'll never happen. But, oh well, this is my little make-believe world. I think New York makes it pretty far thanks to the weak Eastern brackets but they'll just stall out against the Sabres machine. In the other conference final, it's another divisional rival for the Wings which should make for a great series but I think if the Preds make it that far, they'll have been too worn down by the playoff grind while the Wings will have had at least one easy series.
Championship round:

FINALS

• DETROIT over BUFFALO in 7.

Like I said, I'm a homer.

Anyhow, I'm off to watch some more hockey. There's one good thing about where I live and that's CBC coverage. At least I won't have to figure out where Versus is on my TV again.