Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Is It Really Over Yet?

So, Obama won North Carolina (Though, I imagine since it's full of the darkies it doesn't count) and narrowly lost in Indiana (Which, since Obama didn't win, I assume counts double with extra bonus points for being right.). But why then is Hilary canceling most of her appearances today? Which, by the way, is a really bad sign for a campaign and one that usually precedes a concession speach?

Because a narrow loss in Indiana is exactly the same as a narrow win. This isn't the general election where it's winner take all. The Democratic primaries are run on a proportional system - that means you get delegates relative to the amount of the vote you got. And what Obama did last night was stack up a large number of delegates in NC and keep Clinton from making it up in the rust belt where she's been at her strongest. He's now got a clear delegate lead. He's now got a clear lead in the popular vote that doesn't really matter except for convincing superdelegates about his supposed "electability". And he's starting to pull away in terms of delegates as well.

And it's been that way for a while. But the difference is that, now, the media is starting to notice. When they start treating Hilary like Huckabee then it's all over.

Realistically, though, this doesn't change anything. Obama cannot wrap up the nomination. There simply aren't enough pledged delegates left to pass the necessary majority mark. It's going to come down to the superdelegates. And that means it comes down to the convention. Because up until then while they might promise to vote one way or the other, they actually haven't and still might be swayed - look at all the supers who've jumped ship from Clinton to Obama. And that, of course, means that Hilary can still fight it out until the biter end, looking to throw the convention into chaos, arm-twist enough superdelegates back into line, and walk away with the nomination. Granted, I think she'd be doing so over the twisted shards and charred wreckage of the Democratic Party but it's not like I'm going to vote for McCain. I mean, let's be reasonable here.

The question is whether or not Hilary will. If she's taking a day off to regroup and recoup, and will listen to those advisers telling her she needs to find more kitchen appliances to throw. Or if it's the first white flag raised as she listens to those telling her that it's time to end the long dark struggle against the night. Personally, I think she's going to fight on because what does she have to lose that she hasn't already lost? Like, you know, my respect.

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