NFL Blogging: Second Round Playoff Picks

Once more, I find myself scrambling to put these up before the games are played. Even though I've been contemplating them for a while now. Oh well, it worked last week as I went four for four. Believe me, I'm as surprised as anyone. Changing how I do things would obviously upset the delicate karmic balance that led to this unexpected result. So, now, it's not lack of planning, it's superstition.

Doing well last weekend, though, only increases the pressure to do well this weekend. Because lst wekeend was the easy one. The separation between the bottom teams in each conference and those in the middle being larger than the difference between the good teams and the merely adequate ones. That difference being that a second rung team can go into a favorite and steal a game with a break here and there.

Being entirely correct last weekend also set today and tomorrow's slates with a wealth of good games. Today, we have Holmgren and Hasslebeck making another return trip to Green Bay to face Farve and his daycare center of a team in the blistering cold. I'm sure we all remember what happened last time.



Tomorrow there's the rubber match in this season's tense Dallas/New York series. And even the Chargers at the Colts is a rematch of an early season meeting between two teams who'd love to knock off the Patriots. But, of course, it's all prelude to tonight's game between Jacksonville and those same Patriots.

There are some glaringly obvious picks this week, true, but there are also some close calls. Close because the teams involved are so evenly matched and the games promise to be exciting. I dread to watch since the commercials will no doubt be filled with political ad after political ad for the upcoming Republican primary. And, yet, I fear to turn away. So, let's get to it.

• Seattle over GREEN BAY

I'm calling for the upset here. It's a bit of a stretch I know but while the home favorites win a lot of the time in these divisional playoffs, I think there's got to be at least one upset. Especially this year. One of the four teams who seem likely to win has to lose and while a lot of people think that's Dallas, I'm halfway convinced it's Green Bay. There are two reasons, basically. The first is Brett Farve. He's rejuvenated his career this year. To the point where he's thinking about coming back for another. And he's done it by becoming, well, Trent Dilfer. By making the smart plays, by not costing his team the game, by playing within himself and all those other non-glorified things that are the hallmark of a mediocre quarterback doing his best to let the team win the game for him. Since Farve is ever so slightly more talented than your average caretaker quarterback, it's worked wonders. But towards the end of the season, I thought I detected an ever so subtle shift back to his default gunslinger mode. And while, yes, he can make a lot of throws that others can't make he also makes a lot of that no one can make. And while his skills are still good they've noticeably diminished over the years to the point where the gunslinger is shooting himself in the foot as often as he's quickdrawing from the holster. Trying to force a rocketball to his recievers, Farve is good for at least a few drive killers if not out and out turnovers during the course of the game. Farve is better off playing the way that got him to this point. But with all the hype, with all the publicity, with all the attention, can Farve resist the urge to go out there and once more show everyone what he can do? I don't know. What I do know is that Seattle has a great defense. They played a soft schedule but they played it well. Last week they nearly got swept away by the tide of emotion around Washington's 21st man. And, it wasn't publicized at the time, but I'm fairly certain they knew about Gibbs's pending retirement, too. That's a potent combination and it was their defense that held them in that game. If Farve has a bad game then Seattle can capitolize. The second reason is that Green Bay is young. Youngest team in the league. While the Seahawks have calmly and quietly been on a multiple season playoff streak over the past few years. Not going to stack up against Indy or New England, but who is? The focus on Hassleback's overtime boast seems to be about hubris. But, to me, it shows that Seattle has been in the playoffs before. They've been in tough games before. And, sometimes, you have to lose those sort of games before you can win them. The stat I'm looking for here is picks. If Seattle's secondary grabs a couple, especially early, then look out.[1]

• NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville

Well, this is the marque match-up right here. Everything else is just about setting up the next potential victim. But, then, that's what happens when you have an undefeated team about to play their first game in the playoffs. Now, I know I've said that I expect New England won't be able to complete their magical ride, that they're going to trip somewhere along the point. And Jacksonville looks like a perfect opportunity. But, you know, the Patriots have been proving the doubters wrong all season and until they lose again there's no way I'm picking against them. That said, I still think they're more than likely to win this game. That the Jags have a stout running game and the Pats a subpar run defense has been discussed to death. Likewise, the pressure, the tension that mounts exponentially with each game for a team trying to stay perfect. For me, the x-factor is the weather. That they play outdoors in a cold weather state is a large part of the reason for Why The Patriots Will Lose (TM, patent pending). When you get the kind of atmosphere you had at, say, the Tuck Game, then what those sloppy, wintery conditions do is level the playing field. Making anything possible since it takes away more from the better team than the less skilled team loses. A few breaks, a few bounces, a few quirks of fate and probability and the madness begins as the Patriots go down in flames. But the weather, while not perfect, isn't going to be that bad this weekend. If it's anything like around here it's going to be chillier than it has been and more than a little muddy but the recent warm snap means it's going to be well above the freezing rain and driving snow that could derail the New England juggernaut. That's because the secret to the Pats success is the passing game. There's a reason that Brady and Moss set all those records and it's because they aired it out so much. If they have the conditions to put a lot of points on the board then it helps out their run defense because the other team has to play from behind and move away from steadily gashing their undersized line. And, I think, the yards their opponents pick up in garbage time or as they've dropped into deep coverage also make their run defense worse than it appears. Make no mistake, it's the chink in the Patriot's armor. But that just means it's merely adequate not amazingly exceptional. While they won't have the same track as they would in an indoor stadium, New England should still be able to thorw the ball. And that quick strike capability will mean they're never out of the game. This promises to be a great game, if you're into smashmouth football. As a three yards and a cloud of dust man, I am. What's going to happen probably won't be pretty but it should be good football. It'll either be a memorable epic or a grindingly boring game. Either way, I'm going to be watching.

• DALLAS over New York

A lot of people have foreseen the upset here. And there's definitely good reason. This is the third time the teams have played with Dallas taking the first two. And that rubber match can often go towards the underdog with more than enough motivation to win. New York plays well on the road they looked decent if not great against a well-rested and well-readied Tampa Bay team last week. But, well, in this battle of untested playoff quarterback with shaky reputations I'm going to go with the guy at home instead of the guy on the road. So, it's Tony "Hey, where'd the ball go?" Romo over Eli "Ohshitohshitohshitohshitohshit!" Manning for me. Your mileage may vary but that's how I'm going to roll. There's nothing so much to suggest why one team or the other can't win or can't lose so much as I doubt the explanations offered for why the Giants could pull the upset. Because they mostly have to do with the imminent collapse of the Cowboys in one way or another. Whether it's Romo thinking about his personal chicken of the sea or the Dallas coaches eying the big payoffs on the other side of their contracts, I don't think the distraction is all that much of a factor. Nor do I think their recent offensive woes are anything much to go by. The 'Boys had their playoff spot locked up and not much to play for as the season wound down. There's the rust factor at play since they haven't played a meaningful game in a while but I'm not holding that against the Colts and I see no reason to hold it against the Cowboys, either. Tony Romo is a concern, especially after his meltdown last season but, again, on the other sideline is Manning the Younger. And the Giants are, ultimately, a very flawed team with some gaping holes to exploit, especially if your coaching staff's been sitting around during the bye week picking them apart. They're a streaky team, though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this game. I just don't think it's likely.

• INDIANAPOLIS over San Diego

As close as a mortal lock as it's going to get this weekend. The Chargers looked awful beating the Titans last week. And, I know, I know, a win is a win but what the Chargers needed to do was to storm out of the gates. To beat up on their lesser opponent and prove that their poor start to the season was an anomaly. That last year's early exit was a fluke. And they were hitting the ground running this season. That they were, in short, a legitimate contender. Instead, they barely handled a weak and roughed up Tennessee team. They weren't exactly in danger of losing that game. But they weren't exactly in danger of running away with it. Thomlinson was wretched, the less said about the coaching the better, and on and on down the list, there were big warning signs that this is a team primed for collapse. On the other hand the Colts are, well, the Colts. They've been excellent for years. Only the Patriots have stopped them from dominating the league. And, last I checked, they were still the defending champions. They've had a week off to get healthy and to prepare. And while that can work against you, as it did for Tampa last week, it can also work for you. And, frankly, Tony Dungy is a better coach than John Gruden. And the Colts are the sort of veteran, experienced team that knows what to do. Since, after all, they've only been doing it for years. This is the Wallace Rule in full effect. You want to unseat the champs, you have to walk into their building and unthrone them. You have to knock them the fuck out. Leave no doubt. I don't think the Chargers can do that.

[1] - Yes, I know, this is going up a few minutes after the game started. Seattle scored off an early pick (Well, really a coverage fumble) that was returned to the goalline and they're threatening again after another turnover at midfield. But, trust me, I actually wrote that on, like, Wednesday in between throwing up everything I've ever eaten. I just hadn't gotten around to polishing that thought up and posting it yet. And, yep, they've just scored to go up 14-0 as I'm about to press the submit button here. I am seriously scarred that I might have been right here.

NBA Blogging: ROUND TWO! FIGHT!!

Are you ready for some....roundball!? Yeah, actually, I'm not so much gearing up for the Wildcard Weekend as I am tonight's second encounter between the Celtics and the Pistons. Which promises to be as monumental as an early regular season game in the NBA can get.

The Celtics are 20-3 and riding a 9 game winning streak. Statistically, they rank among the best teams. Not this year but ever.

But, if you'll recall, one of those three loses came against....the Pistons. Who are on an 11 game win streak of their own (Which, yes, does include the win against Boston), in which they've just been hammering the competition. Posting double digit margins of victory in all but a few of their victories and definitely sparking a conversation about which one is the true Beast of the East.

I think you can guess where I stand on the issue. Aside from being a rampant homer, I think Boston's been the beneficiary of a soft-schedule and the Pistons have learned that the regular season doesn't matter. Coasting through those 82 games and hoping to turn it on like a light switch has hurt them in the past but, well, you don't need to get 70 wins to be a good team and the amount of effort required is probably counter-productive when it comes to winning a title. And, unlike an undefeated NFL season no one really cares about how many wins you pile up in the NBA regular season, it's more about how healthy you can survive it and your seeding come the playoffs.

The Pistons, in other words, have been there before and know what it takes to get back. While Boston doesn't and that, I think, gives them the edge in any seven game series. A winning record in the regular season series isn't all that important but, you know, it's nice. Considering that, in the wake of the Red Sox's and Patriots' seasons, Boston is primed for unprecedented success, I think it's time for all the right thinking people of the world to come together and hope, hope that I'm right. Because Detroit just might be the last, best chance to stop the Boston Juggernaut.

NFL Blogging: First Round Playoff Picks

Must get these up before the games go live!

On today's slate we have Washington at Seattle, followed by Jacksonville at Pittsburg. Then, tomorrow, in an oddly themed day of mammoth nicknames against warm weather teams we have the Giants at Tampa and the Titans at San Diego. New England, Indie, Dallas, and Green Bay, getting nice and healthy, all wait int the wings for this weekend's winners.

My picks:

• SEATTLE over Washington

I'm going with Seattle because, although I don't think they're primed for a long post season run, they've quietly put together a decent season. By NFC standards, anyway. And they've got an outside chance - as usual - if the dominoes fall right. One that's overshadowed by the Green Bay and Dallas bubble but that could pan out. Meanwhile, Washington's been on a tear but it's one that's been fueled by emotion and soft opponents. But what really settles it for me is the quarterback matchup. Hassleback is solid, if unspectacular, especially at home. And as much as I'd like to back the Michigan Man and say Todd Collins can pull it off on the road, I'll believe it when I see it.

• Jacksonville over PITTSBURG

It seems like everyone and their distant cousin from Jersey is in the Jaguars' corner. That should set the alarm bells ringing. And the field is supposed to be a muddy mess and the line is less than a field goal. The Jags spanked, absolutely spanked the Steelers the last time they met, setting up sweet revenge in the rubber match. All the warning signs for avoiding a band wagon pick are there. But, the Steelers are hurting. Lots of injuries. Polamalu is supposed to play but I don't think he's 100%. And the Steelers just aren't the same without him. While the Jaguars are just the sort of team to take advantage of a muddy, wet afternoon. They're a power running team seemingly built to head up north and play smashmouth. I know I shouldn't, I know I'm probably assuring a Steelers win, but looking at everything I can't pick against the Jaguars. Not this week.

• Giants over TAMPA BAY

This is another game where I'm going with my instincts instead of what cold, hard logic says. The frustratingly inconsistent Giants are quarterbacked by Eli Manning who looked like a deer caught in the headlights late in that season ending New England game. A game the Giants put their all into, got banged up during, and still couldn't manage to end the Patriot's winnign streak. The Bucs, on the other hand, have been taking it easy, resting up once they had their playoff spot, and preparing for their likely match-up with the Giants. They're healthy, they're eager, they're well-preped. But it's that New England game that swings me. I think it's a motivating force, an energizing force, that moment that's brought the Giant team together and convinced them that, yeah, they can play elite level football. And, in the final analysis, I'd rather go with the team that played their games and closed out the season strong rather than the team that decided to mail it in.

• SAN DIEGO over Tennessee

I go with the Chargers here because of the simple fact that they have to win. That might actually work against them but after being broomed out of the playoffs early last year, they fired their coach and brought in a new staff. And they didn't do it for a mediocre regular season, they did it for post-season success. Unfortunately, they'll run head on into the twin dynasties atop the AFC before too long so it's not going to matter but they absolutely have to get past the first round or it's a huge disappointment. The pressure is on San Diego, completely, but I don't think the Titans are good enough to capitalize. They backed into the playoffs, meaningless win against the Colts notwithstanding. And this one has all the markings of a blowout.


I'm not so bold as to chart out the entire playoffs. Not on the record, anyway, although I think it's fair to say that, until they prove me wrong, my money's on the Patriots and I'm figuring on a Pats/Packers Super Bowl.

However, looking down the road, I will say that I think the Patriots are perfectly set-up for the greatest postseason flameout in history. Just as I've been predicting, privately, for a while now. I expected them to close out the regular season undefeated but every game in the playoffs gets exponentially harder. If they make it to the Super Bowl, I think there's no way they can lose. But the road to get there is fraught with danger.

I Can't Watch This Crap Anymore

Has Chris Mathews been proven to lower sperm counts yet? Or is it just me? In any event, after a few solid hours of flipping I am out. The networks have apparently called the race on the Republican side - where it's a lot easier since it's a straw poll. On the Democratic side, the procedure is more complicated as you get to switch your vote so it promises to stretch on for a while since it's a three way heat between the three front runners.

At the moment, though, Obama is starting to pull ahead of the pack and that's, basically, how I expect it to go from here. He'll finish with a win total in the mid to high 30s while Edwards and Clinton will be in the low 30s. The thing I'm going to look at in the morning paper is how Clinton does. If she finishes in third, where I expect her to, how close is the margin? If she's not far back she heads into New Hampshire where she has a lot of institutional advantages and, with a strong showing there, sets up a "come back kid" narrative which might propel her the rest of the way. On the other hand, if she finishes weakly, a distant third, that could be a sign that she's fading and her aura of inevitability, one of the chief arguments in her favor (Albeit, not with me), has been shattered. A strong turnout by the right sort of voter in New Hampshire and Obama could take it or show strongly enough that he inflicts a crippling wound on Clinton. Unless Edwards can turn things around, then, he's effectively out of the race.

On the other side fo the ledger, Iowans have apparently chosen the McGovern gambit[1], breaking for Huckabee. This means that whoever wins New Hampshire (Which, with its lack of fundie voters, is a non-starter for Huckabee.) becomes the anti-Huckabee vote. Huckabee, after all, won Iowa with only thirty-some percent of the vote. That means two-thirds of voters in a conservative, lily-white state where evangelicals reportedly turned out in droves didn't vote for him. I'm not sure he has as easy a time picking up those votes as someone else does of winning them over to their own side. At the moment, it seems like the press and the pundits have nominated McCain.

But the New Hampshire vote could also go for transplanted New Englander Romney although I think Iowa was the final stake through his campaign. Or for the moribund Thompson who finished a distant third and, actually, ahead of McCain (I, like a lot of others, wrote him off what with the money troubles and his problems with the "fear of a brown planet" crowd but he's the respectable, mainstream choice and the press loves him so that might have been hasty. He actually is probably the strongest candidate in a general election so this is not exactly a good thing.). That candidate picks up steam in Michigan (Which also lacks a strong fundamentalist vote, thank goodness, as you know, I kinda live there.) or Huckabee does with his populist approach appealing to a region in dire economic straights (That, by the way, is the basic pitch in all the Romney ads which are blanketing the airwaves even now. "Vote for me, things are bad, I ran a successful business/olympics/state, I can make them better". And the news of yet another round of layoffs at Chrysler only helps to drive that message home. But, I think, like Huckabee says people would rather vote for the person who's like the people they work with rather than the person who's like the one who laid them off.). Either way, it sets up an apocalyptic showdown in South Carolina, (Which promises to be a bloodbath, just like 2000) and whoever walks away with that becomes the prohibitive frontrunner and walks away with the rest of the race. That means it's over by Florida and, so, Giuliani probably doesn't matter.

Paul looks to be coming in behind McCain, by the way, so a decent showing but probably not enough to vault him into the second tier. Once the field narrows, though, and it comes down to Huckabee and anybody but, that might make him extremely influential.

[1] - Ie doubling down and playing to their base. That sound you hear is the conservative coalition breaking apart. Like a glacier. Slow and inevitable.

Happy Caucus Eve

Tomorrow, when Iowa finally holds the first-in-the-nation contest in the primaries for the 2008 election, and the 5% or so of registered voters from that state (Which means 2~3% of the overall population. Well, actually, Iowa tends to have an above average turnout so call it 3~4%.) will head to their cafeterias and other polling places and, basically, decide the course of the election. Democracy in action!

Which, of course, is to contribute to the general trend and bash the confusing and degenerative caucus system in Iowa that, by dint of going first, has an undue influence on the whole process. I mean, the open primary process we have now is better than the smoke filled rooms at party conventions they replaced but it's not perfect. And, let's not kid ourselves, having only come into existence within the past thirty to forty years, hardly set in stone, either. Here's a good overview from Slate, of all places.

But, whatever, it's the system we have and, as those of us in Michigan are all too aware, the entrenched power structures will only attempt to crush any efforts at breaking it or coming up with an alternative. Or maybe I'm just pissed after having to weather the storm of Romney commercials that have blanketed my bowl watching like the sudden winter squalls have blanketed my drive.

It's not like Iowa decides the race so much as defines it. Especially in the current hyper-compressed schedule. But, essentially, a candidate who wins early has enormous advantages going forward.

As for my predictions? Well, I'm not so bold as to make any definite ones. This year promises to be...weird. I don't have any real dogs in the fight, either. Like most Goldberg fascists, I'm going to be happy with just about anyone who gets elected on the Dem side. Or at least not horribly and irrevocably depressed which amounts to the same thing when dealing with politics.

I have problems with candidates like Clinton and Richardson but then I look at the other side of the aisle and they have my full support if only to prevent another Republican disaster at the helm of the ship of state. At the moment, I'm leaning towards Edwards for reasons I couldn't really put my finger on. Mostly, I think, they have to do with the way Obama's been campaigning lately (And, to a lesser extent, the sad realization that Dodd is a non-starter). I understand the strategy but I don't like how he's veered from the left in a transparent effort to pick up right leaning independents and wavering conservatives by appropriating their talking points.

I think, though, what's going to happen is that after Iowa the field is going to narrow. There's going to be the Clinton side and the anti-Clinton vote will coalesce around the most viable candidate. If Clinton wins, that's likely Obama. If not, (And, remember, in an early primary it's not so much who captures the vote as who surpasses expectations and gets the media push.) it's whoever has the stronger showing, Edwards or Obama.

On the Republican side of things, I just have this feeling that Huckabee's going to take it. If only because he's the candidate who scares the crap out of the secular northerner that is me. I think it's going to be close, but the other candidates seem to be fading. Although the establishment backlash against Huckabee seems to have started, I don't think it's enough. Yet. There's no "scream" despite the best attempts, on both sides, to create one.

Happy Happy

Happy New Year everyone. Stopping in for a quick bit before I head out to watch the Rose Bowl with some friends.

Just finished watching Michigan pull out the game against Florida in the Capitol One. And, well, it's bittersweet but at least Coach Carr gets to go off on a high note. That's exactly the kind of game, though, that had people thinking this was a team you could pencil in for the championship. Everything worked. That game was a lot closer than it could have been. The Wolverines survived three killer turnovers. Two within sight of the goal line where they could have, at least, settled for field goals. Two by Mike Hart who never fumbles. I mean never. And he put the ball on the turf twice in one game? But Henne played like the quarterback he's been all along. Manningham was lights out. And the defense played like they had nothing to lose. And just, wow, it's the kind of game that makes you think if only, you know?

Also, managed to pop in game and pick up my Wintersday hats. Only two this year, one for Grenth and Dwayna, instead of the four we had last year. Both are pretty good looking, if you ask me. The first is the award winning crown from an art contest. The second is an homage to Scandinavians and their strange love of putting open flames near flammable objects. Like the hair on a young woman's head, for example.

Managed some epic win streaks the other day, too, so now my skills are, in fact, mad. Hopefully, I'll have a chance to get in game again for some last minute madness and to grab some pics. And we'll be back with some real content before long. But, for now, here's some beer and some grilled food with my name on it calling out to me.

The Ball and Its Dropping

Long time no blog. I know, I know. Consider me duly castigated. Had to take my brother to the west in order to make the flight which saved him a non-Geico bundle. And once I was done, I decided to visit some friends in Chicagoland and you know how it goes.

I'm back home now, left-overs from the family get-to-gether still safe and sound in the crisper. I look forward to endless days of turkey sandwiches and turkey nachos and, by the end, turkey ice cream and no doubt other gastronomic abortions visited upon my digestive tract in the name of frugality. Hate throwing that stuff out, you know?

Anyhow, we managed to have a white Christmas. Barely, thanks to the lingering piles of snow not quiet managing to melt before the day of some people's savior's birth. But I seem to have returns to a world of mud and muck. The sky is gray. The land is brown. Just cold enough to melt. Just warm enough not to freeze. A storm threatens to upset this uneasy equilibrium but, for now, it's dreary and dire and, fortunately, I have plenty of new books to get warm and cozy with.

I have, for the past few days, been working on a guide, of sorts, to the Snowball Fights. Why, I'm not really sure except a lingering desire to help others. Instead of, you know, writing off the rest of the human race as a loss. Just one of those goals I set out to meet by the year's end.

Of course, another goal was to get my next Gamer rank. And my past few days of idle meant I've slid well behind my pace. So, we're in the classic "write about the game or play the game instead of writing about it" dilemma here and I think you know which way this is going here.

I'm something like 600 points away from my admittedly meaningless title. But, hey, when you think about it like that, what's ever really worth anything? It's all memories of fleeting light. And, if you'll excuse me, with over half a hundred victories to pound out before the close of the year, I've got some memories to make.

Until next year everyone. Stay safe, stay sound, and stay happy.

Yule Tidings

Once again, I hope your holiday was as pleasant as mine. Things went rather well around here. From our annual tradition, the petards de fete, I managed to land an aquatic Derringer; the smallest water pistol known to man. At first, I dared not part with it. One never knows when one will find oneself in a heated water gun battle, after all, in these troubled days. But I wound up trading for a pair of round dice that will take up a position of honor in my Crown Royal bag. I could tell you more stories, like the search for the elusive Oxygen Bomb or how my sister made my mother cry. But for now, though an emergency trip to Chicago has been called in order to get my brother to his (incredibly cheap) there on time for his connecting flight to a place where the temperature doesn't hover around freezing. And I have not the time nor the inclination for more. Not sure if I'll be able to get much up for the next few days but, hey, it's the holidays.

Happy Holidays

Here's hoping you're warm and toasty on this merry Christmas.










Photo by Flickr user wili_hybrid and used under a Creative Commons license.

Before I Go...

Quick update on the neighbor situation. Talked with a detective today and unless the idiot next door wants to pursue it further or do something else moronic then that will probably be the last of it. I've moved from being upset, from losing sleep over the thought of someone waking me or my loved ones up in the middle of the night, to just being angry about it all. But as much as I'd like to, I think it's best just not to make a big deal of this. Keep it from escalating. Let cooler heads prevail and be the better man by being generous and forgiving. The reports have been filed, the authorities notified and, if it happens again, the hammer will come down. But, for now, time to put it behind me.

I'm about to head off to the annual Christmas Eve party. There's a small gathering of the immediate family before the much larger event tomorrow. With all the festivities I'm not sure I'll be around much. And what with having new toys to play around with or new books to read, I'm not sure that I'll be up to writing much if I am. So, if I don't have a chance to tomorrow, let me just wish anyone fortunate to be reading this the happiest of holidays. Enjoy yourself, your friends, your family, or whatever it is that makes you happy in peace.